North Carolina
Men - Women
2012 - 2013 - 2014
Switch to All-time Team Page
RankNameGradeRating
60  Ryan Walling JR 31:38
87  John Raneri JR 31:47
144  Pat Schellberg JR 32:02
148  Isaac Presson SR 32:04
316  Joe Sansone FR 32:35
372  Matt Valeriani JR 32:43
381  Scott Morgan JR 32:44
433  Jack Driggs JR 32:51
454  Michael Jacobs JR 32:54
536  Steve Magnuson SR 33:04
1,070  Stephen Mulherin SO 33:57
National Rank #23 of 311
Southeast Region Rank #3 of 47
Chance of Advancing to Nationals 97.0%
Most Likely Finish 24th at Nationals


National Champion 0.0%
Top 5 at Nationals 1.3%
Top 10 at Nationals 9.3%
Top 20 at Nationals 49.2%


Regional Champion 21.8%
Top 5 in Regional 99.3%
Top 10 in Regional 100.0%
Top 20 in Regional 100.0%


Race Performance Ratings


Times listed are adjusted ratings based on performance compared to other runners in race.


RaceDateTeam Rating Ryan Walling John Raneri Pat Schellberg Isaac Presson Joe Sansone Matt Valeriani Scott Morgan Jack Driggs Michael Jacobs Steve Magnuson Stephen Mulherin
Virginia Panorama Farms Invitational 09/28 593 32:06 31:50 32:03 32:11 32:04 32:21 32:50 32:50 33:56
Wisconsin adidas Invitational 10/19 598 31:39 31:51 32:03 32:07 32:36 32:35 32:39 32:44 33:00
ACC Championships 11/01 564 31:39 31:47 31:53 32:03 32:37 32:42 33:00 32:55 33:34
3 Stripe Invite 11/09 1270
Southeast Region Championships 11/15 607 31:14 31:42 32:55 32:00 32:39 32:51 33:54
NCAA Championship 11/23 490 31:33 31:47 31:41 31:57 33:08 33:57 32:23





NCAA Tournament Simulation


Based on results of 5,000 simulations of the NCAA Tournament. Numbers in tables represent percentage of times each outcome occured during simulation.



Team Results

Advances to RoundAve FinishAve Score Finishing Place
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31
NCAA Championship 97.0% 19.7 476 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.6 1.1 1.2 1.7 2.0 2.1 2.5 3.0 3.2 3.7 4.1 3.9 4.7 4.2 5.7 4.8 5.1 5.6 5.2 6.2 5.5 5.3 5.0 4.1 2.9 2.2 0.6
Region Championship 100% 2.4 95 21.8 33.8 33.6 7.6 2.5 0.7 0.0



Individual Results

NCAA ChampionshipAdvances to RoundAve Finish Finishing Place
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25
Ryan Walling 98.4% 62.6 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.2 0.4 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.8 1.0 0.9 0.8
John Raneri 97.1% 82.8 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.3
Pat Schellberg 97.0% 117.7
Isaac Presson 97.0% 124.1 0.0
Joe Sansone 97.0% 194.6
Matt Valeriani 97.0% 205.3
Scott Morgan 97.0% 207.6


RegionalAve Finish Finishing Place
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25
Ryan Walling 7.2 0.4 1.8 4.7 8.4 11.4 11.7 10.1 8.2 5.9 5.4 3.6 3.2 3.1 2.9 2.3 2.0 1.6 1.4 1.3 1.3 1.1 1.1 1.0 0.7 0.6
John Raneri 10.0 0.0 0.4 1.5 3.4 5.5 7.7 8.1 8.7 8.5 6.3 5.3 5.0 4.2 3.1 3.6 2.4 3.1 2.1 2.1 2.2 2.1 1.6 1.3 1.1 1.3
Pat Schellberg 16.2 0.1 0.2 0.7 1.2 2.9 3.7 4.5 5.2 5.2 5.6 5.3 5.5 5.2 4.0 4.0 4.2 3.3 3.5 3.3 2.7 2.6 2.4 2.2
Isaac Presson 17.1 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.0 2.0 3.4 4.0 5.2 4.9 5.2 5.2 4.9 4.7 4.3 4.2 3.5 3.8 3.4 3.5 2.8 2.9 2.7 2.5
Joe Sansone 36.5 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.7 0.6 0.7 1.1 1.1 1.7 2.2 2.8 2.5
Matt Valeriani 42.5 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.9 1.1 1.3
Scott Morgan 43.8 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.6 0.8




NCAA Championship Selection Detail

Total
Region Finish Chance of Finishing Chance of Advancing Auto At Large Selection No Adv Auto At Large Region Finish
1 2 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13
1 21.8% 100.0% 21.8 21.8 1
2 33.8% 100.0% 33.8 33.8 2
3 33.6% 100.0% 1.7 3.7 8.3 8.9 6.4 3.4 0.9 0.2 33.6 3
4 7.6% 99.7% 0.2 0.8 1.3 1.6 1.8 0.7 0.5 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 7.5 4
5 2.5% 6.5% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 2.3 0.2 5
6 0.7% 0.7 6
7 0.0% 0.0 7
8 8
9 9
10 10
11 11
12 12
13 13
14 14
15 15
16 16
17 17
18 18
19 19
20 20
21 21
22 22
23 23
24 24
25 25
26 26
27 27
28 28
29 29
30 30
31 31
32 32
33 33
34 34
35 35
36 36
37 37
38 38
39 39
40 40
41 41
42 42
43 43
44 44
45 45
46 46
47 47
Total 100% 97.0% 21.8 33.8 1.7 4.0 9.1 10.2 8.0 5.2 1.6 0.7 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 3.0 55.7 41.3




Points



At large teams are selected based on the number of wins (points) against teams already in the championships. As a result, advancement is predicated on accumulating enough points before the last at-large selection. Accordingly, the points below are the total number of wins against automatic qualifiers or teams selected in the at-large process before the last selection. Minimum, maximum, and average points are number seen in 5,000 simulations of the NCAA Tournament.



Received By BeatingChance ReceivedAverage If >0Average
Texas 99.9% 1.0 1.0
Indiana 99.6% 1.0 1.0
Eastern Kentucky 99.4% 1.0 1.0
Notre Dame 95.9% 2.0 1.9
Providence 91.6% 1.0 0.9
Air Force 68.6% 1.0 0.7
Florida State 67.8% 1.0 0.7
Harvard 65.7% 1.0 0.7
Virginia 64.2% 2.0 1.3
Florida 59.3% 1.0 0.6
Georgia 55.0% 1.0 0.6
Dartmouth 23.0% 1.0 0.2
Georgetown 17.7% 1.0 0.2
Minnesota 17.1% 1.0 0.2
Auburn 14.4% 1.0 0.1
Washington 10.2% 1.0 0.1
Arizona State 8.9% 1.0 0.1
Tennessee 7.8% 1.0 0.1
North Carolina St. 5.2% 2.0 0.1
Illinois 4.7% 1.0 0.0
Duke 1.2% 2.0 0.0
Virginia Tech 1.2% 1.0 0.0
UCLA 0.4% 1.0 0.0
Michigan State 0.1% 1.0 0.0
Louisville 0.0% 1.0 0.0
Georgia Tech 0.0% 1.0 0.0
Missouri 0.0% 1.0 0.0
Total 11.5
Minimum 7.0
Maximum 16.0